Predicting the Future of Humanity and Machine Intelligence

News-based probability indices, updated weekly

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Probability Indices

The odds that each event happens within the next 25 years, and how they moved this week.

LIVE Run 1, 22 Sep 2026

⚛️

Quantum Chemistry

28.53%

▲ +2.2%vs last week

🧠

Brain Telepathy

10.58%

NEWfirst reading

💡5% limit

Conscious AI

9.41%

▲ +5.0%vs last week

🤖

Household Robots

8.85%

▲ +3.1%vs last week

🛰️

Alien Civilization

3.27%

▼ −1.6%vs last week

⏳5% limit

Age Reversal

2.66%

▼ −5.0%vs last week

☀️

Fusion Power

1.83%

▲ +4.2%vs last week

🧬5% limit

Designer Babies

1.60%

▲ +5.0%vs last week

☠️5% limit

Population Collapse

0.94%

▲ +5.0%vs last week

🚀5% limit

Earth Escape

0.72%

▼ −5.0%vs last week

▲ ▼ Change vs last week, as a share of the index value

5% LIMIT: moved the most allowed in one week / Track: log scale, ticks at 1% and 10%

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Predicting the Future of Humanity and Machine Intelligence

Probability Indices

Subscribe for free, and stay ahead of the curve

Articles

Space Camel