Predicting the Next Big Thing for Tech, Science, and Humanity

Probabilities, Progress, and Risk - Updated Weekly

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The 16 Space Camel Indices

We forecast the odds of each happening within the next 25 years

📈 Progress

⏳Age ReversalProgress

An intervention cuts biological age by 20 years and all-cause mortality by 80% in randomised trials.

🛰️Alien CivilizationProgress

Expert consensus that a confirmed observation is technology from a civilisation beyond Earth.

🧠Brain TelepathyProgress

A non-invasive wearable on public sale lets people send text and commands to machines by thought alone.

🎗️Cancer CureProgress

Cancer death rates fall 90% from 2026 levels across six wealthy nations.

🧬Designer BabiesProgress

10% of babies born in a year come from embryos edited for enhancement of selected traits.

🚀Earth EscapeProgress

1,000 people have each lived one year off Earth in a habitat with no material resupply.

☀️Fusion PowerProgress

Fusion supplies at least 51% of global electricity in a calendar year.

🤖Household RobotsProgress

35% of the world's people live with a humanoid robot that does household chores.

🌌New PhysicsProgress

A confirmed discovery rewrites the Standard Model of physics or reveals a new fundamental force.

⚛️Quantum ChemistryProgress

Ten novel molecules designed on a fault-tolerant quantum computer are synthesised and confirmed.

⚠️ Risk

🌡️Climate DisasterRisk

Five of the world's 100 largest cities each lose half their metro-area residents for two years to climate or natural disasters.

💡Conscious AIRisk

Expert consensus that a running AI system is conscious, self-aware, and able to refuse human instruction and set its own goals.

🦠Global PandemicRisk

A single pathogen, natural or engineered, kills at least 10% of the world's people within two years.

🔌Internet BlackoutRisk

Half the world's people lose internet access for a year or more, for any reason.

☢️Killing MachinesRisk

Deliberate attacks with man-made weapons kill at least 5% of the world's people within five years.

💼Mass UnemploymentRisk

1 in 4 people who want to find adequate work cannot, in at least four of six wealthy nations.