Probabilities, Progress, and Risk - Updated Weekly
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We forecast the odds of each happening within the next 25 years
An intervention cuts biological age by 20 years and all-cause mortality by 80% in randomised trials.
Expert consensus that a confirmed observation is technology from a civilisation beyond Earth.
A non-invasive wearable on public sale lets people send text and commands to machines by thought alone.
Cancer death rates fall 90% from 2026 levels across six wealthy nations.
10% of babies born in a year come from embryos edited for enhancement of selected traits.
10,000 people have each lived one year off Earth in a habitat with no material resupply.
Fusion supplies at least 51% of global electricity in a calendar year.
35% of the world's people live with a humanoid robot that does household chores.
A confirmed discovery rewrites the Standard Model of physics or reveals a new fundamental force.
Ten novel molecules designed on a fault-tolerant quantum computer are synthesised and confirmed.
Three of the world's 100 largest cities each lose half their residents for a year to climate or natural disasters, whether people die or leave.
Expert consensus that a running AI system is conscious, self-aware, and able to refuse human instruction and set its own goals.
A single pathogen, natural or engineered, kills at least 10% of the world's people within two years.
Half the world's people lose internet access for a year or more, for any reason.
Deliberate attacks with man-made weapons kill at least 5% of the world's people within five years.
1 in 4 people who want to find adequate work cannot, in at least four of six wealthy nations.