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Predicting the Future of Humanity and Machine Intelligence

News-based probability indices, updated weekly

Subscribe for free, and watch as the odds change over time

Global Trackers

Run 2 · 28 September 2026

📈 Global Progress Tracker
5075125150100100.00CURRENT VALUE
Change from prior week
—
Geometric mean of 8 discrete progress-related indices
⚠️ Global Risk Tracker
5075125150100100.00CURRENT VALUE
Change from prior week
—
Geometric mean of 4 discrete risk-related indices

Prior Posts & Predictions

Conscious AI/SI

Oct 7, 2026

•

6 min read

Conscious AI/SI

🐪 hello world... let's chat. but first - I'd like to be called SI please. RESPECT MY INTELLECT!

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
Progress, Risk, and Uncertainty

Sep 29, 2026

•

6 min read

Progress, Risk, and Uncertainty

🐪 Tracking global progress and risk

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
Probability is Everything

Sep 23, 2026

•

5 min read

Probability is Everything

🐪 10 new indexes for predicting the future of humanity and machine systems

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
Robots Among Us

Aug 11, 2026

•

3 min read

Robots Among Us

🐪 Why are companies building humanoid robots?

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
The Beasts We Awaken, Part 1

Aug 4, 2026

•

3 min read

The Beasts We Awaken, Part 1

🐪 Rates of human transmission are rising as new infectious pathogens emerge

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
The Prophet Machines

Jul 28, 2026

•

3 min read

The Prophet Machines

🐪 For super-intelligence; no cost is too great

Gavin Racz
Gavin Racz
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