 | Space Camel Predicting the next big thing for tech, science, and humanity Run 5 · 27 October 2026 |
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Each week, a panel of AI models forecasts the odds that 16 world-changing events happen within the next 25 years. Here’s what changed. |
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Global Progress & Risk Tracker  📈 Progress 92.4 ▼ 4.0 this week | ⚠️ Risk 98.4 ▲ 0.3 this week |
100 is where both started on 6 October. Progress rises when the odds of the 10 breakthroughs rise; Risk rises when the odds of the 6 risks rise. |
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🔍 Biggest News of Interest Global Pandemic rose from 1.4% to 1.5%, the week's only climb. Analysts cite France's first human Shamonda death amid steady animal spillovers. Such a pathogen would kill one in ten people within two years. |
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What moved this week 5 of the 16 moved, largest relative move first. |
☀️ Fusion PowerProgress Fusion supplies at least 51% of global electricity in a calendar year. 0.86% ▼ down from 1.3% | Runs 1–5 |
First fusion power is still ahead; supplying most of the world's electricity needs a build-out at unprecedented scale. |
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🚀 Earth EscapeProgress 10,000 people have each lived one year off Earth in a habitat with no material resupply. 0.65% ▼ down from 0.84% | Runs 1–5 |
Starship has only just reached orbit and Mars cargo is slipping; no habitat has run a year without resupply. |
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⏳ Age ReversalProgress An intervention cuts biological age by 20 years and all-cause mortality by 80% in randomised trials. 1.7% ▼ down from 2.0% | Runs 1–5 |
The latest reprogramming result is lab work on cells; human trials are still testing safety in eye disease. |
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🤖 Household RobotsProgress 35% of the world's people live with a humanoid robot that does household chores. 8.6% ▼ down from 9.3% | Runs 1–5 |
China's humanoid rental rates have crashed over 70%, and robots still struggle with chores in messy homes. |
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🦠 Global PandemicRisk A single pathogen, natural or engineered, kills at least 10% of the world's people within two years. 1.5% ▲ up from 1.4% | Runs 1–5 |
Animal-to-human spillovers continue and engineered pathogens add risk, though one in ten deaths would rival the Black Death. |
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Unchanged or new this week Every index has a full card in the web version. | Runs 1–5 | Odds | | 🛰️ Alien Civilization Expert consensus that a confirmed observation is technology from a civilisation beyond Earth. | | 1.9% | returns | 🧠 Brain Telepathy A non-invasive wearable on public sale lets people send text and commands to machines by thought alone. | | 9.8% | unchanged | 🎗️ Cancer Cure Cancer death rates fall 90% from 2026 levels across six wealthy nations. | | 4.2% | new | 🌡️ Climate Disaster Three of the world's 100 largest cities each lose half their residents for a year to climate or natural disasters, whether people die or leave. | | 1.9% | restarted | 💡 Conscious AI Expert consensus that a running AI system is conscious, self-aware, and able to refuse human instruction and set its own goals. | | 7.1% | restarted | 🧬 Designer Babies 10% of babies born in a year come from embryos edited for enhancement of selected traits. | | 1.1% | unchanged | 🔌 Internet Blackout Half the world's people lose internet access for a year or more, for any reason. | | 1.4% | restarted | ☢️ Killing Machines Deliberate attacks with man-made weapons kill at least 5% of the world's people within five years. | | 1.9% | new | 💼 Mass Unemployment 1 in 4 people who want to find adequate work cannot, in at least four of six wealthy nations. | | 6.8% | restarted | 🌌 New Physics A confirmed discovery rewrites the Standard Model of physics or reveals a new fundamental force. | | 13.4% | unchanged | ⚛️ Quantum Chemistry Ten novel molecules designed on a fault-tolerant quantum computer are synthesised and confirmed. | | 27.6% | unchanged |
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