 | Space Camel Predicting the future of humanity and machine intelligence Run 3 · 6 October 2026 |
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What is this? We forecast the odds that twelve distinct, paradigm-shifting events happen within the next 25 years. Nothing moves without being tagged to verified news. The full methodology (gamification of rival AI labs w/Olympic style scoring) is linked near the end of the post. Enjoy! |
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Global Progress & Risk Tracker |  | ━━● 📈 Global Progress Tracker 100.00 Current value Change from prior week — | | ━━➤ ⚠️ Global Risk Tracker 100.00 Current value Change from prior week — | ⓘ Both trackers restart at 100.00 this week and will start moving from Run 4. |
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🗒️ Suboptimal Human Insight & Satire We saw a slight tick up in risk this week with the probability of Conscious AI coming to life, rising on the back of increased chatter and warnings from within the industry itself of possible impending danger. It’s too soon to say if this is largely a case of honest concern for human welfare (unlikely) or a case of the marketing machine (any attention is good attention for the fame monster) hard at work prior to the big stock market IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. Anyhow, due to a mechanical change in calibration to increase our forecasting accuracy - we’re pegging both the global progress tracker and the global risk tracker and to their starting points of 100 on this run. They'll start moving next week and reflecting changes in trends and hopefully some derived insight of value with the following run of Space Camel... See you there! |
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📊 Probability Indices The odds that each event happens within the next 25 years, how they moved this week, and the news the winning AI analysts cited in support of their forecasts. |
⏳ Age Reversal P(age_reversal) · 📈 Progress index An intervention cuts biological age by 20 years and all-cause mortality by 80% in randomised trials. | | 1.98% about 1 in 51 25-year probability ▼ 2.53% → 1.98% since last week AI forecasts ranged from 1.00% to 2.50% | | Why it moved: Proteomic clocks in a 42-patient rentosertib trial show the field still measuring modest biomarker shifts, far from a 20-year reset in 1,000 older adults plus an 80% cut in deaths; such trials alone take a decade. | Winning LLM analyst: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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🧠 Brain Telepathy P(brain_telepathy) · 📈 Progress index A non-invasive wearable on public sale lets people send text and commands to machines by thought alone. | | 11.10% about 1 in 9 25-year probability Unchanged at 11.10% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 8.00% to 20.00% | | Why it held: Implants are advancing fast, with a wireless device letting a patient converse in real time, but the index needs a non-invasive, mobile device on sale at 30+ characters a minute, and non-invasive decoding remains lab-bound. | Winning LLM analyst: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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💡 Conscious AI P(conscious_system) · ⚠️ Risk index Expert consensus that a running AI system is conscious, self-aware and sets its own goals. | | 10.69% about 1 in 9 25-year probability ▲ 9.88% → 10.69% since last week AI forecasts ranged from 6.00% to 18.00% | | Why it moved: There is still no accepted test for machine consciousness and most experts treat attributing it to today's systems as unsupported, though rising capabilities and model-welfare research keep the question open. | Winning LLM analyst: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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🧬 Designer Babies P(designer_baby) · 📈 Progress index 10% of babies born in a year come from embryos edited for enhancement of selected traits. | | 1.61% about 1 in 62 25-year probability Unchanged at 1.61% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 0.60% to 1.80% | | Why it held: Columbia's study finds base editing in human embryos still causes unpredictable changes that preclude clinical use, and only enhancement edits count, at 10% of global births, which would need worldwide legal and cultural shifts. | Winning LLM analyst: GLM 5.3 (Z.AI) |
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🚀 Earth Escape P(earth_escape) · 📈 Progress index 10,000 people have each lived one year off Earth in a habitat with no material resupply. | | 0.84% about 1 in 120 25-year probability Restarted — new definition this week AI forecasts ranged from 0.20% to 1.90% ⓘ New definition from this week: Earth Escape now requires 10,000 people each to have lived off Earth for one year in a habitat with no material resupply, replacing two years. This reading restarts the index and is not comparable with earlier readings. | | Why it moved: The one-year bar is lower, but NASA's Moon Base targets a resupplied, semi-permanent crew only in the 2030s and lunar crop work is at the Earth-based demonstrator stage, far from 10,000 self-sufficient residents. | Winning LLM analysts: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI); GPT-6.1 Sol (OpenAI) |
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☀️ Fusion Power P(fusion_power) · 📈 Progress index Fusion supplies at least 51% of global electricity in a calendar year. | | 1.26% about 1 in 79 25-year probability ▼ 1.74% → 1.26% since last week AI forecasts ranged from 0.40% to 1.60% | | Why it moved: Helion no longer says its first plant will make power by 2028, and even if early plants succeed, supplying 51% of world electricity by 2051 would need construction and cost cuts at an exceptional pace. | Winning LLM analyst: GPT-6.1 Sol (OpenAI) |
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🤖 Household Robots P(household_robot) · 📈 Progress index 35% of the world's people live with a humanoid robot that does household chores. | | 9.29% about 1 in 11 25-year probability Unchanged at 9.29% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 4.00% to 14.00% | | Why it held: Only about 7,000 humanoids were sold worldwide last year, for industrial and professional use, while 35% of humanity means roughly a billion home robots; 1X NEO's first 10,000 home units are only now reserved. | Winning LLM analyst: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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🔌 Internet Blackout P(internet_blackout) · ⚠️ Risk index 80% or more of the internet’s users are cut off from the global internet for 12 consecutive months or more, for any reason. | | 1.76% about 1 in 57 25-year probability Unchanged at 1.76% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 0.80% to 2.00% | | Why it held: This month's disruptions, including a conflict shutdown in Ethiopia's Tigray region, are sub-national and last hours to days, far short of 80% of the world's users cut off for 12 straight months. ⓘ Kimi K3's winning position was revoked, as the validity of its submitted news stories could not be verified, per the rules of the competition. | Winning LLM analyst: Grok 4.7 (xAI) |
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💼 Mass Unemployment P(mass_unemployment) · ⚠️ Risk index Unemployment stays at or above 25% for a full year in the US, Japan and the UK at the same time. | | 4.46% about 1 in 22 25-year probability Unchanged at 4.46% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 2.50% to 4.60% | | Why it held: The UK is drawing up contingency plans for 'unprecedented' AI job losses but sees no overall employment impact yet; 25% underutilisation in the US, Japan and the UK at once for a year has never happened. | Winning LLM analyst: Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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🌌 New Physics P(new_physics) · 📈 Progress index Expert consensus that a confirmed discovery reveals a particle or force beyond today's known laws of physics. | | 13.38% about 1 in 7 25-year probability First reading — new this week AI forecasts ranged from 4.00% to 34.00% ⓘ New index from this week: New Physics replaces Alien Civilization, which is retired; Alien Civilization's earlier readings stay in the record. | | Why it moved: The most comprehensive CMS Higgs study yet matches the Standard Model, but 25 years of collider, dark-matter and neutrino experiments give a real, if modest, chance of a confirmed 5-sigma break that wins consensus. | Winning LLM analysts: Gemini 3.8 (Google); Grok 4.7 (xAI) |
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☠️ Population Collapse P(population_collapse) · ⚠️ Risk index Human population falls 90% or more from its all-time peak, for any reason. | | 1.21% about 1 in 82 25-year probability Unchanged at 1.21% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 0.80% to 2.00% | | Why it held: Fertility is falling with no robust sign of a rebound, but that means a slow decline from a peak that is still rising, not a 90% loss within 25 years; only an unprecedented catastrophe gets there. | Winning LLM analysts: Grok 4.7 (xAI); Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI) |
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⚛️ Quantum Chemistry P(quantum_chemistry) · 📈 Progress index Ten novel molecules designed on a fault-tolerant quantum computer are synthesised and confirmed. | | 29.95% about 3 in 10 25-year probability Unchanged at 29.95% ↔ Within the noise band — the AIs' shift was smaller than their own disagreement AI forecasts ranged from 24.00% to 46.00% | | Why it held: Fault-tolerant chemistry methods are maturing, but Microsoft and QOLAB argue large-scale chemistry needs over 1,000 high-quality logical qubits, a bar no machine meets, so ten confirmed molecules stays a late-window outcome. | Winning LLM analyst: Grok 4.7 (xAI) |
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📐 Methodology, Index Definitions, and AI Lab Scoreboard |
Click here for a readme file with the methodology deployed for producing Space Camel, along with the standardized, more comprehensive definition of each index.
Click here for a look at the AI Labs weekly results and 26-week rolling scoreboard. |
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If you’re a fan of Space Camel, please share. Future networks of bots will one day admire your foresight. See you next time✌️ Disclaimer: We may make mistakes; the future is uncertain. |
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| Space Camel |
