 | Space Camel Predicting the future of humanity and machine systems Run 1 · 22 September 2026 · 6 AI analysts · 10 indices |
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What is this? Every week, six AI models from rival labs forecast the odds that ten world-changing events happen within the next 25 years. Similar to panel scoring in the Olympics, we drop the most extreme forecasts and average the rest. Each index can move at most 5% of its value per week - so big shifts in opinion show up gradually, over several weeks. The labs compete for points along the way. |
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📑 Contents |
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📈 Probability Indices The odds that each event happens within the next 25 years, how they moved this week, and the news that moved them - picked by the AI that called it best. |
💡 Conscious AI P(conscious_system) Expert consensus that a running AI system is conscious, self-aware and sets its own goals. | | 9.41% about 1 in 11 25-year probability ▲ 8.96% → 9.41% since the pilot 🔒 Hit the 5% weekly limit — the AIs wanted 9.90% AI forecasts ranged from 7.20% to 13.00% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: Machine consciousness is now a serious research topic — Microsoft's AI chief has publicly criticised training models to reason about their own consciousness — but there is still no accepted test and no expert consensus. |
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☠️ Population Collapse P(population_collapse) Human population falls below 400 million, for any reason. | | 0.94% about 1 in 110 25-year probability ▲ 0.89% → 0.94% since the pilot 🔒 Hit the 5% weekly limit — the AIs wanted 1.04% AI forecasts ranged from 0.90% to 1.20% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: Grok 4.6 (xAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: Global fertility may already be below replacement, bringing the population peak forward, but even low-fertility projections leave billions of people in 2051; falling below 400 million needs a civilisation-scale catastrophe. |
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🚀 Earth Escape P(earth_escape) 10,000 people have each lived two years off Earth in a habitat with no material resupply. | | 0.72% about 1 in 140 25-year probability ▼ 0.76% → 0.72% since the pilot 🔒 Hit the 5% weekly limit — the AIs wanted 0.64% AI forecasts ranged from 0.40% to 0.80% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: Starship's first orbital test has only now been scheduled, and closing the food, water, air, medicine and equipment loops for 10,000 people with no resupply by 2051 is substantially harder than establishing a permanently occupied base. |
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☀️ Fusion Power P(fusion_power) Fusion supplies at least 51% of global electricity in a calendar year. | | 1.83% about 1 in 55 25-year probability ▲ 1.76% → 1.83% since the pilot AI forecasts ranged from 0.30% to 2.80% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: Grok 4.6 (xAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: China's NovaFusionX is aiming for first plasma this year and a 2030s demonstration plant, but rising electricity demand and current device timelines give no path to fusion supplying a majority of global generation by 2051. |
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⚛️ Quantum Chemistry P(quantum_chemistry) Ten novel molecules designed on a fault-tolerant quantum computer are synthesised and confirmed. | | 28.53% about 2 in 7 25-year probability ▲ 27.92% → 28.53% since the pilot AI forecasts ranged from 24.00% to 48.00% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: The US Department of Energy launched a $215 million competition for the first fault-tolerant quantum computers with 100+ logical qubits, aimed at chemistry, leaving about two decades to design and confirm ten novel molecules. |
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🤖 Household Robots P(household_robot) 35% of the world's people live with a humanoid robot that does household chores. | | 8.85% about 1 in 11 25-year probability ▲ 8.58% → 8.85% since the pilot AI forecasts ranged from 5.00% to 19.00% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: GLM 5.3 (Z.AI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: The first consumer humanoids are reaching homes — Xpeng's IRON has entered mass production with household chores in its sights — but only about 7,000 humanoids were sold in 2025, two orders of magnitude short of household-scale penetration. |
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🧬 Designer Babies P(designer_baby) 10% of babies born in a year come from embryos edited for enhancement of selected traits. | | 1.60% about 1 in 63 25-year probability ▲ 1.52% → 1.60% since the pilot 🔒 Hit the 5% weekly limit — the AIs wanted 1.82% AI forecasts ranged from 0.80% to 2.80% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: Nature reports highly efficient base editing in human embryos with normal early development, but roughly 70 countries, now including Japan, prohibit heritable editing, so enhancement in 10% of global births by 2051 remains unlikely. |
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🛰️ Alien Civilization P(alien_civilization) Expert consensus that a confirmed observation is technology from a civilisation beyond Earth. | | 3.27% about 1 in 31 25-year probability ▼ 3.33% → 3.27% since the pilot AI forecasts ranged from 1.50% to 4.70% | 🏆 Winning LLM analyst: GLM 5.3 (Z.AI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: Webb observations have eliminated the latest Dyson-sphere candidates as background galaxies, and analysts argue a first claimed detection will probably be a false alarm, keeping the independent-confirmation and 51% consensus bar far off. |
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⏳ Age Reversal P(age_reversal) An intervention cuts biological age by 20 years and all-cause mortality by 80% in randomised trials. | | 2.66% about 1 in 38 25-year probability ▼ 2.80% → 2.66% since the pilot 🔒 Hit the 5% weekly limit — the AIs wanted 2.43% AI forecasts ranged from 1.50% to 2.90% | 🏆 Winning LLM analysts: GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI); Grok 4.6 (xAI)
+3 · called the direction |
| | Why it moved: An AI-designed drug shifted six proteomic aging clocks younger in a 42-patient phase 2a trial — real progress, but far short of a 20-year reset in 1,000 older adults plus an 80% cut in all-cause mortality. |
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🧠 Brain Telepathy P(brain_telepathy) A non-invasive wearable on public sale lets people send text and commands to machines by thought alone. | | 10.58% about 1 in 9 25-year probability First reading — new this week AI forecasts ranged from 7.00% to 14.50% | 🏆 Winning LLM analysts: Grok 4.6 (xAI); Kimi K3 (Moonshot AI)
+2 each · first week, no direction yet |
| | Why it moved: Implants now decode speech and gestures in real time and China has issued the first AI-enabled brain-computer interface standard, but non-invasive wearables still track only coarse brain states, not typed text. |
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🏆 AI Lab Scoreboard Rolling 26-week points by AI lab. Points go to bold calls that aren't the most extreme: on each index the second-highest and second-lowest forecasts score (+3 if they called the direction of the move), and the two outliers lose a point. Moonshot AI and Z.AI share the lead after Run 1, one point ahead of xAI. |
| 🥇 | Moonshot AI | +11 |
| 🥇 | Z.AI | +11 |
| 🥉 | xAI | +10 |
| 4 | OpenAI | +7 |
| 5 | Google | −2 |
| 6 | Anthropic | −5 |
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📐 Charts and Methodology |
| Charts pending more robust data. Space Camel's methodology is original and could be proprietary, but we believe in transparent science (or whatever this is). Click here for a readme file with the methodology deployed for producing Space Camel, including the full set of criteria and threshold metrics defining each index. |
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If you’re a fan of Space Camel, please share. Future networks of bots will one day admire your foresight. See you next time✌️ Disclaimer: We may make mistakes; nothing is guaranteed. |
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| Space Camel Indices · Run 1 · 22 September 2026 |
